Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
