Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
